It has been over two months since Bitcoin’s [BTC] last YTD peak. It has lost its bullish momentum, causing investors to grow weary of its short-term prospects. BTC now runs the risk of investors losing confidence, which could result in increasing sell pressure.
Sometimes, a perspective shift is all it takes to have a better view of the market. This is not the first time that Bitcoin experienced indecisiveness at its press time price level.
Zooming out to a three-day chart revealed that the recent resistance level near $28,000 acted as support in May 2022. The price was previously in a descending trajectory before the sideways activity, which was then followed by a continued descent.
Will the opposite happen this time? The price has been on a bullish trajectory since the start of 2023, and an extended upside may be expected if it continues rallying. So far, it has maintained healthy relative strength, and its MFI indicates that liquidity is still flowing into Bitcoin.
On top of that, a popular crypto analyst recently highlighted observations that suggest that the bulls might continue to dominate.
Bulls might be ready for more dominance
Crypto analyst @CredibleCrypto believes that Bitcoin’s bullish expansion phase has already started. He also noted that its latest consolidation phase was 30% longer than the previous phase between 2019 and 2020. The analyst expects the next bull run to be particularly strong, based on the above observations.
But do those expectations reflect things on the chain? Well, Glassnode’s data shows that the amount of BTC supply last active for longer than 10 years is now at a new ATH of slightly over 2.7 million BTC. On top of that, whales seem to be buying. The number of addresses holding one or more BTC is now at a new ATH.
A quick glance at the supply distribution reveals that addresses holding over 10,000 BTC have overall added to their holdings in the last 30 days. However, addresses holding between 100 – 1000 Bitcoins trimmed their balances during the same period.
The above observations do not necessarily exempt Bitcoin from sell pressure. The market was still on edge at press time, perhaps waiting for the next major signal that may offer some directional clarity. Bitcoin exchange flows have declined in the last few days. This includes both exchange inflows and outflows.
On the plus side, derivatives demand remains within healthy levels. Such low market movements are bound to attract some leverage activity in the derivatives demand, as traders look to maximize gains under low-volume market conditions. Bitcoin’s estimated leverage ratio has been up slightly since the start of April.
Bitcoin’s open interest has been up significantly in the last few days. More notably, it has been rising since the end of March. A continued upside may trigger a return of market confidence.