A closely-watched report on US inflation is expected to show that consumer prices remained elevated last month, consistent with the levels seen in March.
April’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to rise 5% over the prior year, matching March’s annual gain, according to estimates from Bloomberg.
The increase would still be significantly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The Fed has been raising interest rates to try to bring down inflation, but the central bank risks sending the economy into a recession by hiking rates too high too fast. Last week, the Fed signaled it could pause its hikes, saying it would assess incoming data ahead of its next meeting in June.
Over the prior month, consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.4% in April, up from the 0.1% monthly increase seen in March.
On a “core” basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in April are expected to have risen 0.4% over the prior month and 5.5% over last year, according to Bloomberg data.
Here’s what to expect compare to March’s numbers:
- Headline inflation (YoY): +5.0% expected versus March’s +5.0%
- Headline inflation (MoM): +0.4% expected versus March’s 0.1%
- “Core” inflation (YoY): +5.5% expected versus March’s +5.6%
- “Core” inflation (MoM): +0.4% expected versus March’s +0.4%
“As we have been saying for some time now, we expect that slowing economic activity will trigger a material deceleration in inflation, but the path back to 2% will be long and bumpy,” Wells Fargo wrote in a note on Friday, adding elevated gas prices will likely push headline inflation higher on a month-over-month basis.
UBS also anticipates a “solid” CPI print, which, coupled with strong average hourly earnings, adds to risks the Fed could once again raise rates in June. Still, the bank maintained its view that the May meeting’s rate hike was the last increase of the hiking cycle.
“How the FOMC participants communicate that remains to be seen, particularly with the potential for divergent opinions on the Committee,” UBS said in a note on Friday. “Things could get noisy, and noisy could mean volatile.”
Ahead of the release of Wednesday’s inflation data, markets were pricing in an 83% chance the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged in June, according to data from the CME Group.
The April CPI data comes after a strong jobs report last Friday. The report contained revisions to jobs numbers for March and February, though, indicating a resilient but cooling labor market and giving investors hope the Fed would pause its hikes.