Gold rose after US President Donald Trump and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire to finalize talks on ending the war that’s upended global markets.
Bullion climbed as much as 3.2% to above $4,850 an ounce, adding to a 1.2% gain in the previous session. Trump said in a social-media post that he had agreed to suspend bombing less than two hours before a self-imposed deadline to wipe out Iran’s “whole civilization,” adding that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was a key condition for the pause. Iran said safe passage through the strait was “possible” for two weeks.
Oil plunged below $100 a barrel and the dollar also fell, supporting gold that’s priced in the US currency. Equities surged, with MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index hitting a three-week high. Since the war in the Middle East began, bullion has traded largely in tandem with stocks, with its traditional haven appeal dimmed by some investors’ need to cover losses elsewhere in their portfolios.
“Gold’s push above $4,800 reflects a recalibration of risk, rather than a full regime shift,” said Ahmad Assiri, a strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “The move higher suggests markets are now pricing in a lower probability of prolonged disruption, while still retaining a meaningful discount versus the pre-Iran setup,” he said.
Now in its sixth week, the conflict has driven a spike in energy prices and raised inflationary risks, making it more likely that central banks will delay cutting interest rates or even hike them. Bond traders expect the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs steady through the rest of the year, which would be a headwind for non-yielding gold.
Gold has fallen about 9% since the war began at the end of February. A moderate recovery in recent days had been driven by hopes for a ceasefire, as well as expectations that a slowdown in global economic growth will act as a counter to bets on stable or higher borrowing costs.
On Tuesday, before the ceasefire was announced, a trio of Fed officials expressed concerns over inflation and slowing growth. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson described interest rates as broadly in a range that neither spurs nor restrains the economy, while Fed Bank of New York Governor John Williams said his outlook for underlying price pressures in the US was largely unchanged.
“In the near term, gold remains highly sensitive to political developments,” said Assiri. “The current ceasefire provides a window of relief, but it is conditional and fragile. Any sign of breakdown, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, would likely reintroduce volatility” and downside risk, he added.
Spot gold rose 2% to $4,800.47 an ounce as of 12:49 p.m. in Singapore. Silver gained 4.9% to $76.56. Platinum and palladium also advanced. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the US currency, fell 0.8%.