Relax, beer lovers, and crack another cold one. That new study predicting a global beer shortage brought on by global warming doesn’t account for all factors.
Two researchers for the Brewers Association, the trade group for independent brewers, say beer lovers can relax a bit despite a report that found climate change could lead to beer scarcity.
The study found human-induced global warming could lead to more severe droughts and heat extremes that would reduce the production of barley, the main ingredient in beer.
Annual barley yields could fall from 3 percent to 17 percent, depending on the severity of the conditions, researchers estimate. That would result in a reduction in the U.S. of 900 million gallons of beer – about 9 billion bottles.
Thankfully, growers of barley – and hops, for that matter – are already at work addressing changes that global warming can bring about.
“Luckily, this paper is largely an academic exercise and not one that brewers or beer lovers should lose any sleep over,” write Bart Watson, an economist with the Brewers Association, and Chris Swersey, a BA supply chain specialist, in a report addressing the study.
“The beer industry certainly understands and is already preparing for shifts in climate.”
While the study assumes “the current geographical distribution and area of barley cultivation” will remain the same, barley production has migrated north with Canada now accounting for 70 percent of North American yields, up from 50 percent in 1985, they say.
And barley crop yields have risen about 17 percent every 11 years, they note. “The yield decreases anticipated in the paper are very small compared to what the historical data predicts about increases over time,” Watson and Swersey say.
Research supported by the Brewers Association is being conducted into addressing barley’s heat and drought tolerance, as well as water efficiency. Also being studied: hop breeding for growth in expanding conditions.
Big brewers such as Anheuser-Busch and MillerCoors are also developing increased sustainability techniques, they say. “Although climate change certainly poses future supply chain challenges for beer, the beer industry is well positioned to evolve even as the global climate shifts,” Watson and Swersey say.
Climate change cannot be shrugged off. Wine growers and distilled spirits producers will also face some agricultural challenges, they say. But beer “is as well positioned as any industry to evolve and thrive even as the climate changes,” Watson and Swersey write.
Cheers to that.
