Recent volatility could be a sign that the markets are about to turn higher, according to Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist at Credit Suisse.
Golub, in a note to clients Monday, blamed the recent sell-off on what he dubbed “post-traumatic volatility disorder.”
“It is not unusual for markets to remain jittery for some time — perhaps 2-3 months — following a spike in the VIX,” the note read. The Cboe Volatility Index spiked as high as 25 this month.
But despite fears of a longer-term slowdown, Golub is still bullish.
When there’s a “spike in volatility that you can’t explain with a piece of news flow, the market pops back unless you have something really broken,” he said in an interview with CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday.
Golub pointed out that other metrics, such as liquidity, fixed-income market volatility and corporate earnings numbers all remain stable. Economic data is “not slowing towards a recession,” he said.
Going forward, Golub said, the technology sector should be able to withstand any shifts in economic conditions because “the addressable markets are huge.” However, sectors that “need the economy to drive” them forward, such as industrials, could fare much worse.
“I think we’re going to get exactly what we got in February,” when a volatility spike caused a sell-off but stocks rebounded to new highs later in the year, he said.
Golub said the S&P 500 could reach 3,000 once volatility settles. The index closed down 0.4 percent Monday to 2,755.88 as the financials sector dropped 2.1 percent. The Dow fell 0.5 percent, while the Nasdaq gained 0.3 percent, driven by Apple and Amazon.
