A new report predicts New York City will retain its crown as the largest urban economy in the world, as San Jose, Calif., set to be the fastest growing.
Oxford Economics says in its annual Global Cities report that financial and business services will keep New York City in first place in 2035. In that year, the report projects New York City to have annual output of $2.5 trillion after adjusting for inflation.
Tokyo, the report projects, will be No. 2 by “some margin,” followed by Los Angeles and London. Chicago is the third and final American city placing in the top 10.
Oxford Economics projects that by 2027, the combined GDP of all Asian cities in its forecast will exceed the aggregate GDP of North American and European cities combined.
As for fastest growth, the de facto Silicon Valley economic capital San Jose leads the way in the U.S., with projected growth of 3% per year between 2019 and 2035. San Jose, in the report’s view, “offers a powerful high-tech, entrepreneurial ecosystem combining research universities, investment capital and a cultural affinity for risk.”
No. 2 Portland, Ore., gets its boost from high-tech goods production, and the digital economy puts Austin, Texas, in third place, with Dell, IBM IBM, +0.47% and Apple AAPL, +1.30% all having presences there.
While it’s high technology driving the top cities, the report points out that smaller Southwest and Rocky Mountain metro areas will feel the benefit of a revived energy-extraction sector. What the reports called “sturdy in-migration” — retirees and young families escaping high costs on the West Coast — is boosting areas such as Provo and St. George in Utah and the Idaho capital Boise.
The outlook for the Midwest is less optimistic, though growth in recreational vehicles — also boosted by retirees — is helping Elkhart, Ind.
