The US housing market should experience a warm return this spring, thanks to calming economic data.
The average rate for a 30-year loan declined to 6.63% from 6.69% the week prior, according to Freddie Mac on Thursday. Mortgage rates dropped for the second time in 2024 and are expected to retreat further as inflation moderates, which could help spark a housing rebound.
As most indicators point to interest rate cuts this coming year, housing experts are predicting a busier spring buying season starting in the next couple of months as more supply and demand return to the housing market thanks to the mortgage rate drop.
“So long as core inflation and economic activity continue to moderate, mortgage rates aren’t expected to rise further,” said Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow. “If layoffs remain low, and mortgage rates ease, housing market activity should rebound modestly this spring — meaning more listings coming on the market and more sales.”
Mortgage applications fall
The likelihood of a bustling spring housing market will depend heavily on where mortgage rates head next. Homebuyers have proven again they are rate-sensitive amidst today’s elevated home prices. After last week’s slight rate increase, the volume of mortgage application activity retracted 7.2% on a weekly basis, according to an application survey tracked by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) for the week ending Jan. 26.
“Low existing housing supply is limiting options for prospective buyers and is keeping home price growth elevated, resulting in a one-two punch that continues to constrain home purchase activity,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s deputy chief economist.
Affordability challenges also worsened due to last week’s rate bump. The average loan size for purchase applications increased to $444,100, the largest since May 2022, according to the MBA.
Low application rates and hardship don’t mean homebuyers have disappeared, though. Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index — measuring buyers’ requests for home tours and other buying services on Redfin — showed that interest increased 6% over the last seven days in the week ending Jan. 28.
“I believe this year’s market will launch in the spring, once 6% rates are even more entrenched in buyers’ psyches, and more homeowners list their houses,” said Hal Bennett, a Redfin Premier agent.
Wall Street banks and industry experts expect cuts. Wells Fargo said in its 2024 annual outlook that the economy will moderate by mid-2024, prompting the Fed to cut rates by 225 basis points by early 2025. Housing experts at Fannie Mae are predicting mortgage rates will decline below 6% by the end of 2024, leveling off at about 5.8%.
During yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed announced it is keeping its benchmark rate steady in an effort to suppress inflation to 2%. Even so, Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed optimism that rates have peaked and a cut could come soon. But any drop is not a guarantee.
“Inflation is still too high, ongoing progress in bringing it down is not assured, and the path forward is uncertain,” Powell said during the FOMC conference.
The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index — the Fed’s preferred inflation measurement — increased 2.6% annually in December, falling below 3% for the first time since March 2021. More importantly, though, is that an annualized PCE using data from the prior three to six months is now below 2%.
“The lower inflation readings over the second half of last year are welcome,” Powell added, “but we will need to see continuing evidence to build confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our goal.”
