Bitcoin’s (BTC) price soared to a record of $93,445 late Wednesday but has since retreated to hover around that all-important resistance level of $90,000. This level is identified by a trendline connecting the twin peaks from 2021, making it a key point to watch.
Interestingly, a similar trend has played out in the Nasdaq-to-S&P 500 (NDX/SPX) ratio, which is widely seen as a gauge of investor risk appetite in traditional and emerging technology sectors. Since 2017, this ratio has led bitcoin through its ups and downs, and CoinDesk first highlighted this pattern in April 2023, emphasizing a solid positive correlation between the two. Back then, the ratio was in an uptrend, offering bullish cues to BTC, which traded below $30,000.
Fast forward to July, the NDX/SPX ratio peaked at new highs, right above the critical trendline joining the twin peaks from 2021, sending positive signals to bitcoin. But since then, the ratio has taken a step back, settling below the trendline again.
So, as of now, it looks like bitcoin is following movements in the NDX/SPX ratio, just like it has for years. If this pattern holds, we might see BTC settle below $90,000 for a bit longer. The shenanigans in the options market suggest the same.
On the flip side, a renewed upswing in the NDX/SPX ratio would be a green signal for the bulls to go all in and take prices into six figures. Some traders are already betting on an eventual breakout above the $100,000 mark.
