Let the games begin. The ultimate shopping showdown is underway.
Amazon’s (AMZN) Prime Day deals will take center stage for most shoppers this week as the company extends its signature shopping period to four days. But this year, as in recent years, Amazon is not alone.
Walmart (WMT), which showed a profit in its US e-commerce business for the first time this year, is on Amazon’s tail as it doubles down on its e-commerce business, entices customers to join its Walmart + membership subscription, and leans into its strength — groceries.
Amazon is “clearly the big player this week,” Mizuho analyst David Bellinger said. But, he added, others are in on the fun. That list includes Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s, (LOW), Best Buy (BBY), Tractor Supply (TSCO), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), and even Ulta Beauty (ULTA) — all of which are running deals online as well as some in-store promotions.
Front and center, Amazon’s biggest threat: Walmart, with its Deals week that runs for six days and is open to all customers, not just members.
Amazon’s Prime Day event kicked off Tuesday and is set to run through July 11 for members only. What started out as a single-day event back in 2015 is now 96 hours — double last year’s Prime-a-thon. Bank of America projects that Amazon alone will bring in $21 billion in sales worldwide during the four-day event.
Yet, this could be Walmart’s moment to shine — or at least gain some ground on its dominant rival.
Walmart juiced up its convenience and delivery chops with the addition of Walmart+ in 2020. In its fiscal 2025 report, Walmart brought in $121 billion in e-commerce sales, boosted by 8.3 billion items delivered the same or next day. Amazon trumps that in comparison with $247.03 billion in net sales for its online stores alone.
Its rival’s overwhelming lead aside, Walmart might gain ground thanks to the consumer climate. Consumers remain cautious — US retail sales for May fell 0.9%, a sharper drop than economists had forecast. That means shoppers this week will seek out the best deals no matter what membership they hold.
“Amazon’s probably your first choice to search for stuff, but then you price compare,” Bellinger said. That could be hurting Amazon, as spending is reportedly down 14% in the first four hours of the first day.
“Amazon’s … like the king of this week … then everyone gets a ‘drafting off of them’ benefit,” he added.
Consumers will turn to discretionary items this week, such as household essentials, personal electronics, and back-to-school items, per the software analytics platform Adobe. That leans in Amazon’s favor.
“During these savings events … most of these large discounts are geared towards more discretionary goods, like electronics, apparel,” CFRA analyst Arun Sundaram said. “Those are categories where Amazon typically holds greater share than Walmart, and especially the e-commerce space.”
Membership, grocery businesses in focus
Yet, despite Amazon’s dominance in many categories, this week could be Walmart’s big chance to gain membership income and market share.
Sundaram said Walmart’s first priority is to “get more people to sign up for their Walmart+ membership model.”
Walmart is looking to take share from Amazon by offering its $98 membership at half price for $49 until July 15. The company touts free returns from home and free pharmacy delivery, among other perks. Amazon’s annual Prime membership is $149 for the year.
Walmart’s US membership revenue, including membership fees and other items, came in around $2.6 billion in 2024, up roughly 31% from the year prior. Neither company discloses current membership numbers.
Amazon doubled that, bringing in $44.4 billion in subscription services last year, up 10% year over year, including annual and monthly fees associated with Amazon Prime memberships, plus other subscriptions like its ebook service, Kindle Unlimited.
Members tend to be higher-income customers who skew to buying general merchandise, analysts said. That could play into Walmart’s playbook as wealthier shoppers look for deals at the big box retailer. (Walmart US CEO John Furner told investors last quarter it saw “growth across all income cohorts in the quarter.”)
Amazon and Walmart stocks both fell more than 1% on Monday as investors continue to be confused about the impact of President Trump’s tariff polices. Also, price tags at big events typically hit profit margins.
Of course, it’s impossible to know exactly how Walmart will fare this week. But Walmart executives are clearly focusing on the company’s strength: groceries, which make up 60% of Walmart’s US revenue and are something consumers are keeping top of mind.
Front and center on Walmart’s homepage, food prices are as much as 50% off.
