Modest US Hiring to Cap a Sluggish Year for the Job Market

US job gains probably remained modest in December, wrapping up one of the weakest years for employment growth since 2009. Economists project nearly 60,000 jobs were added for the month, based on the median of a Bloomberg survey ahead of Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Friday. That would leave payrolls up about 670,000 for 2025, far below the 2 million jobs added in 2024. The jobless rate probably eased to 4.5% in December from a four-year high. Following years of scrambling to attract workers, employers slowed their hiring in 2025. Stabilization in job openings suggest many firms were content with staffing levels, although a whirlwind of government trade-policy announcements also encouraged companies to focus on cost-saving efforts and approach additional hiring with caution. The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence may also be a limiting factor for payrolls growth as companies seek to bolster productivity. But while the pace of hiring has slowed, there are also few signs of widespread layoffs. That helps explains why the Federal Reserve, after three straight rate cuts at the end of 2025, is expected to be cautious about easing early this year as they await further progress on reducing inflation. What Bloomberg Economics Says: “We think the decoupling between GDP growth and labor-market metrics will persist through 2026. Inflation will come down, and ultimately the Fed will cut rates by 100 basis points in the coming year.” —Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Chris G. Collins, Troy Durie and Alex Tanzi, economists. For full analysis, click here In addition to the December jobs report, the BLS on Wednesday will issue November figures on job openings, quitting and layoffs. The Institute for Supply Management’s December surveys of manufacturers and service providers will also offer clues about employment in those industries. At week’s end, the government will report on October housing starts, while the University of Michigan issues its preliminary January consumer sentiment index. Elsewhere, Canada also publishes job numbers, and inflation readings are on the way from Australia to the euro area to Latin America. Central bankers in Israel and Peru may keep rates unchanged. Below is our wrap of what else is on the schedule for the global economy in the coming week. Europe, Middle East, Africa In the euro zone, several reports will complete the picture for inflation at the end of 2025. German and French consumer-price numbers for December come on Tuesday, with figures for the region as a whole scheduled for the following day. The European Central Bank affirmed last month that euro-area inflation is on track to stabilize at 2%, and the upcoming data are likely to point that way. Economists predict the headline gauge will be exactly at the target, while a core gauge that strips out volatile food and energy costs probably held at 2.4%.

Also being watched is the ECB’s survey of consumer inflation expectations, on the schedule for Thursday. Unemployment and economic confidence will be published then, too. As is usual for this time of year, remarks by officials are fairly sparse, although ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, chief economist Philip Lane, Executive Board member Piero Cipollone, and Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau all have scheduled appearances. Among other national reports are manufacturing-related numbers. In Germany, the region’s largest economy, factory orders for November come on Thursday. Industrial production is due there and for France and Spain, too, the following day. Meanwhile, Friday marks the deadline for applications for the No. 2 post at the ECB, with euro-area finance ministers set to decide later this month who’ll succeed de Guindos. The Spaniard’s non-renewable eight-year term expires in May, and the field of contenders is getting crowded.

Inflation is on the schedule for Switzerland on Thursday. After the gauge unexpectedly dropped to zero in November, economists predict a slight uptick, to 0.1%. That should be enough to meet the central bank’s forecast of 0.1% for the fourth quarter. A negative reading would be only the second such monthly outcome in more than four years, though policymakers — who’ve already cut rates to 0% — have vowed to look through sporadic subzero results.

Sweden’s inflation data are also due on Thursday. The CPIF gauge tracked by the Riksbank hasn’t fallen below 2.3% since last January, so officials will monitor for any progress toward their 2% goal. Norway’s consumer-price growth on Friday will similarly draw attention at a time when the underlying measure has stayed stubbornly at or above 3% for half a year. UK consumer lending numbers on Monday may be the highlight there, with no Bank of England officials scheduled to speak and major data not due until the following week. Political discourse may perk up, though, as Parliament’s recess ends on Monday. In the Middle East, Turkish inflation data on Monday may show a slight slowdown, to 31%. The same day, Israel’s central bank is likely to keep borrowing costs unchanged.

• For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for EMEA

Asia Australia’s CPI figures for November — due Wednesday — are expected to show that inflation eased modestly but remained above the central bank’s target, reinforcing policymakers’ cautious stance after recent upside surprises. The figures should help the Reserve Bank of Australia gauge whether the latest price pressures are starting to fade. Inflation readings are also due from the Philippines and Taiwan. On Thursday, data are set to show that Japan’s wage growth slowed in November, largely due to base effects and fewer working days. Underlying momentum remains solid, supporting the Bank of Japan’s view that pay growth is strong enough to sustain inflation.

• For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Asia

Latin America Consumer prices take center stage in the region, with all five big inflation targeting economies closing the books on 2025 by the end of the week. Of those, all but Colombia will have inflation back within their respective central bank’s tolerance range, while only Peru’s BCRP has it at or below target.

Most analysts see the data supporting some mild tweaking to monetary policy in Chile, Peru and Mexico before their central banks arrive at a terminal rate. On the other hand, Brazil seems well positioned to begin some aggressive unwinding, while Colombia’s BanRep — responding to a 23% hike to the minimum wage announced Dec. 29 — starts to tighten from its current 9.25% as soon as this month.

In addition to consumer price data, Chile will also serve up minutes from the central bank’s most recent rate-setting meeting. The Dec. 16 quarter-point cut, to 4.5%, doesn’t leave much daylight between the current key rate and the likely terminal rate. Rounding out the week, Peru’s BCRP meets with inflation having run below the 2% mid-point of its target range since late 2024. Headline readings like that might argue for some easing after pausing at 4.25% for its last three meetings.

Still, the economy is in no real need of stimulus, and volatility ahead of elections scheduled for April can’t be ruled out. Veteran central bank chief Julio Velarde and colleagues may opt for caution with a hold at 4.25%.