Goldman Forecasts 20% Gains for China Stocks in 2026

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. projects Chinese stock benchmarks will post another year of growth, though at a slower pace than in 2025, with earnings supported by AI and policy measures.

The MSCI China Index is forecast to climb 20% to 100 by end-2026 from its 2025 close, while the CSI 300 Index is seen rising 12% to 5,200, strategists including Kinger Lau wrote in a note Wednesday.

“Our expected equity gains in 2026 are almost entirely earnings-driven,” they said. Profit growth will be “supported by AI, ‘Going Global,’ and anti-involution policy.”

China’s equity rally has carried strong momentum into the new year, and Goldman Sachs joins other major firms in maintaining a positive outlook despite hefty gains in 2025. The upgrade reflects confidence that earnings expansion, policy initiatives, and new growth drivers will keep investors engaged.

The CSI 300 has advanced 3.5% so far in 2026 to its highest level in four years. The MSCI China has gained about 3.6%, outperforming the S&P 500.

Investor enthusiasm was evident in onshore turnover, which rose Tuesday to the most since mid-September. Outstanding loans taken out by investors to purchase stocks also hovered near record highs.

Mainland Chinese investors’ southbound buying of Hong Kong-listed shares is projected to reach $200 billion on a net basis, setting another record, the strategists said. Meanwhile, foreign investors are expected to pare back their underweight positions in Chinese equities, potentially driving $10 billion of inflows.

The strategists also raised their forecast for corporate profit growth, expecting it to accelerate to 14% in 2026 and 2027 from 4% in 2025.

Goldman Sachs has long been bullish on China, often defying market pessimism during the multi-year slump. A year ago, its strategists projected a roughly 20% gain for Chinese stocks in 2025.