Policymakers say they are still talking, but the past week ended with a trio of signals that efforts to renew now-expired enhanced Obamacare subsidies face longer odds than ever.
The political salience of the issue is self-evident — Affordable Care Act subsidies led to a government shutdown last fall, and the expiration has caused double-digit rate increases — but Washington disagreements appear to be winning over action.
Bipartisan negotiations on Capitol Hill have been ongoing for weeks, but lawmakers left Washington on Thursday for a weeklong recess sounding notably downbeat that any breakthrough is forthcoming.
The White House released its healthcare framework focused on prescription drug prices and health savings accounts. It was notably silent on the issue of renewing these enhanced subsidies.
Meanwhile, on a third front — perhaps the area most front of mind for millions of Americans — the open enrollment period ended for most Obamacare exchange plans.
These plans are offered at the state level, and while some extensions may be offered, the passing of this deadline means higher rates for many are now formally in place.
The effects of these hikes have already been felt. New government data on exchange enrollment released this week showed that sign-ups on the government’s Healthcare.gov marketplace are down more than 800,000 from levels seen last year.
About 22 million Americans received these subsidies in 2025, and an analysis from health policy research organization KFF found that subsidies saved enrollees an average of $705 annually in 2024.
A focus in Washington on healthcare, but not on subsidies
As the White House unveiled its healthcare framework, an official downplayed the notion to reporters that the omission of subsidies was a signal that the administration is not interested in the issue. But President Trump held a healthcare event Friday where he again slammed former President Barack Obama’s signature law.
Trump said his framework, which is short on details and could face an uphill path to enactment on its own, was released in part because Obamacare “was designed to make insurance companies rich.”
The White House official added to reporters that Trump prefers a different approach and called the focus on Obamacare subsidies “too narrow a view on what is ailing our healthcare system.”
Congressional negotiations, meanwhile, are on ice for at least a week. Lawmakers are now home for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday recess. Moderates are trying to stay optimistic after weeks of pushing for a compromise.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer met with President Trump this week and, according to Schumer’s office, pressured the president to “push Senate Republicans.”
Sen. Lisa Murkowski, an Alaska Republican, has been central to the talks and told reporters Thursday, “I’m not giving up, because I think what we have to do is respond to the immediacy of the situation that we have now.”
But she acknowledged that talks for the moment are “paused.”
Discussions could restart at the end of the month when lawmakers return on Jan. 26 — especially as another government shutdown deadline looms on Jan. 30. Democratic leaders have signaled an interest in keeping the healthcare and shutdown debates separate, suggesting they are unlikely to push for shutting down the government a second time over the issue.
As Schumer put it recently, “[W]e’d like to get an appropriations bill done” and continue to negotiate healthcare separately.
For now, much of the focus is on Obamacare premiums as more likely to become a 2026 campaign trail issue rather than one that is likely to be addressed anytime soon.
Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden even offered a spin this week on a famous question first asked in 1980 by Ronald Reagan during the presidential campaign, which could be repeated a lot by Democrats between now and November.
Wyden wrote, “Every American should be asking themselves a simple question: Are you paying more for your healthcare than you were a year ago?”
