By most objective measures, Qualcomm Inc. appears to be in the midst of a stock market heater.
The chipmaker’s shares have gained for nine straight sessions, their longest winning streak since November 2023. The stock’s 11% advance in that time is its best performance in about six months. And more broadly, semiconductors are the second-best performing sector in the S&P 500 Index this year.
But that’s only part of the story. Take a step back, and Qualcomm shares are still down 20% for 2026, making them by far the worst performer in the Philadelphia semiconductor index, and earlier this month they fell to the lowest since 2023. The stock’s 25% plunge in the first quarter was its worst quarterly showing since 2002. And Wall Street analysts have been aggressively cutting their earnings projections for the company over the past three months as its outlook darkens.
“They were for a very long time a momentum stock,” said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners. “The death of that is really hard because you have to figure out what other kind of investor is going to be drawn to what the company has. It’s a long process, it’s an ugly process.”
The reason for Qualcomm’s divergence from other chip stocks basically comes down to soaring demand for memory from the buildout of AI data centers, which has left makers of consumer electronics devices with limited supply and higher prices. Since the end of August, an index of spot prices for dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM, chips is up almost 500%. While prices are down about 13% off a January peak, the trend is still souring analysts on Qualcomm’s growth prospects.
“There’s no way around the fact that memory constraints are a real challenge in the near term, and because there’s so much unknown about the memory outlook, no one can say if the worst is over,” said Ethan Feller, a stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research. “The stock would probably look attractive if we knew when the memory picture was going to improve, but the growth picture for both this year and next year is just not very good, and that’s obviously not good for sentiment.”
In its previous earnings report, Qualcomm said that some of its customers, particularly those in China, will be making fewer handsets than expected because they can’t get enough memory chips and the price of those components is going up. At the time, Chief Executive Officer Cristiano Amon said the company is transforming into a more diversified seller of chips for cars, personal computers and data centers. But the new businesses aren’t enough to make up for the shortfall in its main market.
A couple of years ago, many investors expected Qualcomm to be positioned to capitalize on the spread of AI outside of data centers, sending its shares to a record in June 2024. But that hasn’t panned out so far and along with Apple’s decision to phase out Qualcomm’s modem chips in its iPhones, Qualcomm shares are down almost 40% from their peak.
A representative for Qualcomm didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Of course, Qualcomm isn’t the only company being hurt by the memory chip shortage. Personal computer maker HP Inc. is down 12% this year. Skyworks Solutions Inc. and Qorvo Inc. also provide chips for smartphones and are struggling as well in 2026, with declines of 6.2% and 2.3%, respectively.
Analysts expect Qualcomm’s revenue to dip 0.8% in its 2026 fiscal year, which closes at the end of September. That would be its first year of negative growth since 2023. In fiscal 2027, revenue is projected to rise just 0.8%. Meanwhile, the overall semiconductor index is expect to post revenue growth of 56% in 2026 and 28% in 2027, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data.
The stock has received at least eight downgrades this year. Of the 45 analysts who cover Qualcomm, 17 have buy ratings and three have sells, its worst recommendation consensus since at least 2008. By comparison, chipmakers in the AI business like Nvidia Corp., Broadcom Inc., and Micron Technology Inc., which have buy ratings from more than 90% of the analysts that follow them.
JPMorgan cut Qualcomm last week. As did BNP Paribas, which wrote that “the memory pricing squeeze is likely going to remain a headwind” into the first half of next year,” and that “we see no relief for QCOM in the short to medium term.”
The primary argument for Qualcomm is its relatively inexpensive valuation. The stock trades at around 12 times estimated earnings, a discount to its 10-year average of roughly 15. The semiconductor index has a multiple of about 22.
The next catalyst for shares is likely to come later this month when Qualcomm releases its second-quarter results on April 29. However, earnings have hardly been a panacea lately — in the past 15 quarters, only two reports have generated share-price gains. The stock fell 8.5% in the wake of a weak forecast in February.
Still, there are some optimists among the bargain hunters.
“The market has given Qualcomm some pretty substantial headwinds, but it has still executed well in a tough market, and it seems like these issues are by now so well known that they’re priced in,” said Steve Bruce, chief investment officer at Bruce Wood Capital. “If we see memory prices come off more, that will give it more breathing room, and over the longer-term it looks attractive.”
