Strait of Hormuz traffic is near a standstill again, but analysts say 'the world has adapted'

Days of attacks and counterattacks between the US and Iran have ground traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill, but the economic ripples — so far, at least — aren’t quite as dramatic.

Futures for international oil benchmark Brent crude (BZ=F) remain far off the $100 levels seen from March through May. The story has been similar in US-benchmark WTI crude (CL=F), which jumped this week but then quickly retreated below its 200-day moving average.

Meanwhile, US equity markets looked past Middle East tensions to post gains early on Thursday fueled by other drivers, like AI prospects.

This brush-off comes despite an array of actions that would typically be expected to unsettle markets, from the US revoking Iran’s license to sell oil free of sanctions to Trump musing about reimposing a blockade and even seizing Kharg Island.

The difference, according to analysts: Energy markets are increasingly prepared to adapt to energy shocks from the Middle East.

“The broader economic damage could be smaller than feared,” Dan Alamariu of Alpine Macro, an investment research firm that is part of Oxford Economics, wrote on Thursday. “The world has adapted.”

Alamariu noted that export routes have been rerouted over the past four months, and oil-importing countries like China have shown the ability to cut demand faster than expected.

The global economy might not get off scot-free, Alamariu cautioned, suggesting that oil prices could again approach $100 per barrel if the renewed fighting escalates and persists for multiple months.

Fears of an oil glut may be replaced with some renewed worries about global oil inventory levels, Tobin Marcus of Wolfe Research added on Wednesday in his own note. But the bottom line for investors is that while “the risks of a more severe escalation have risen, the base case remains manageable.”

“Everything has moved in the expected direction … but the magnitudes of those moves have been fairly modest,” Marcus wrote.

Indeed, part of the muted reaction could also be attributed to the fact that the three-week ceasefire saw significant outflows of oil into world markets.

President Trump has focused on that and downplayed the chances of another oil shock, acknowledging at a press conference Wednesday that prices are up because of the attacks.

“This will be over very quickly,” he stressed. “We have an oil glut right now” because of the ships that passed through the crucial waterway in recent weeks.

A steep drop-off in strait traffic — for now

After Iran attacked three vessels in and near the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week, the US responded with strikes on more than 80 targets on Wednesday and 90 targets on Thursday.

Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz quickly fell off, according to available data, especially on the southern route along Oman’s coast that is supported by the US.

Traffic peaked at 59 passages on June 24, but this week has seen figures in the teens, though the data has become increasingly unreliable as shippers turn off transponders to avoid detection.

“Hormuz confidence erodes again,” data and ship tracking service Kpler wrote on Thursday, noting that crude oil is still making passage. But the attacks and “a decline in forward tanker positioning have weakened confidence in the reopening.”

Even that has done little to rattle energy markets.

Another report from Hamad Hussain, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, warned investors to brace for oil prices that could be “volatile over the coming months.” But he downplayed some recent actions, like the US reinstating sanctions on Iran.

“China is likely to remain a willing buyer of Iranian oil regardless of the status of US sanctions,” Hussain said.

He concluded that if the ceasefire is eventually reinstated and traffic resumes, “we think Brent crude prices will settle close to current levels at the end of this year.”