Tuesday will bring an updated look at the state of inflation in the US as the war in Iran pressures global fuel and food prices.
Economists expect the Consumer Price Index rose 3.7% in April from a year ago, according to a Bloomberg survey, and 0.6% from March, which itself saw the largest monthly gain since 2022.
Stripping out the more volatile energy and food categories, economists anticipate that prices on a “core” basis rose 2.7% from a year ago, up from March’s annual rise of 2.6%, and running closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. But shelter costs are expected to jump in April’s report, due to data distortions after last year’s government shutdown.
Any further surge in consumer prices was likely driven by soaring energy costs. Prices at the pump Monday were running at $4.52 a gallon on average, according to AAA, up about 44% from a year ago.
More expensive fuel could also trickle down into travel: Average domestic airfares were clocking in at $365 the week of April 27, up from $346 just after the war broke out, according to data from Kayak. International prices surged even more, rising from $805 in early March to about $1,100 as of the most recently available data.
At the same time, higher energy bills could also eventually nudge US food prices up as diesel prices soar, though the starkest impact on groceries could take a while to be felt domestically.
